Can the Scottish team at last end the All Blacks hoodoo?
Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks
Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 15:10 GMT
Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.
After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.
A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."
Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.
A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.
Recent History
Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.
During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.
Squad Updates
In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.
Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.
We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.
Key Absences
Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.
The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.
In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.
Replacement Concerns
They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.
Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.
Coaching Choices
The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.
The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.
Past Encounters
Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.
Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.
Statistical Analysis
For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.
Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.
Required Performance
During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.
The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.
Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.
Conclusion
Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over.
With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.
Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.